The year 2023 was a test of strength for Hollywood, which the mecca of cinema was able to far surpass, which is why the predictions for the 2024 Oscar in each category the awards are hotter than ever. On the one hand, the consequences of delays and cancellations due to the COVID emergency were more evident than ever. Finally, they arrived on the big screen, several of the most anticipated releases filmed during the months of hiatus and almost all of them were failures. Cases like that of Indiana Jones and the dial of destiny, proved that large budgets, made more expensive by security measures, affected their financial performance.
At the same time, the year left in its wake box office disasters that revealed the erosion of the superhero genre. Of the general disappointment around Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, The Marvels to the disappearance of the DC Extended Universe. Stories about superheroes exemplified that their ability to maintain the popularity of different titles is becoming less and less. Which caused, little by little, the feared fatigue around large franchises to become a reality. An element that marked the arrival of a new type of cinema and a renewal of collective interest in the theater experience.
The great proof of that occurred thanks to an unpredictable phenomenon. Barbenheimer It united two completely different films, in a critical and public success that cleared up doubts about the solidity of Hollywood. Separately, Barbie and Oppenheimer showed massive interest in a type of cinema that does not depend on franchises, spin-off and sequels. In the case of the history of the physicist, directed by Christopher Nolan, also showed that the public is still interested in dense, mature and sober plots.
Therefore, the 2024 Oscar ceremony of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will reward not only the permanence of cinema. At the same time, the strength of an industry that had to face a second crisis with the strike of scriptwriters and actors. Once the new obstacle was overcome, the world of the seventh art showed its solidity and its legacy for the future. The survival of the great show in theaters despite all the difficulties.
We leave you our predictions for the 2024 Oscar.Oppenheimer will make history and sweep all categories? Is there an opportunity for independent titles like Past Lives and American Fiction? Our analysis covers not only the most interesting moments in the awards ceremony landscape, but also its impact on the most important night of cinema.
An obvious winner for the Oscar for Best Picture
Nominated
In this category, Oppenheimer has a clear advantage over the rest of the nominees. The most sober part of the call Barbenheimer, surpassed Barbie on all the occasions in which they have competed together. What’s included Critics Choice Movie Awardshe Golden Globehe BAFTA and the SAG Awards. Nor has it had any contenders among the rest of the films in the box, even though Poor Creatures It was the great favorite of the auteur film festival circuit.
But Oppenheimerconsidered a work of art both narratively and visually, won much of the awards season. Which brings this year’s Best Picture Oscar to traditional Academy turf.
If last year he succeeded Everything at once everywhere— a science fiction oddity that caused controversy — the biopic of theoretical physicist meets the usual requirements of the guilds. Namely: a filmed drama with classic precision and that takes cinematographic visual and language resources to a new dimension.
A possible last minute contender could be The Moon Killers. Martin Scorsese’s historical epic has been considered, almost unanimously, as the director’s most personal and best-executed film and is among the 2024 Oscar predictions. But unfortunately, that favorable point of view has not been reflected on the various red carpets.
Oscar 2024 predictions
A fight between points of view for Best Director
Nominees
- Justine Triet by Anatomy of a fall
- Martin Scorsese by The Moon Killers
- Yorgos Lanthimos by poor creatures
- Christopher Nolan by Oppenheimer
- Jonathan Glazer by The area of interest
In this area, Oppenheimer He also has everything to win in the 2024 Oscar prediction pool. Christopher Nolan is, right now, one of the most important filmmakers in the industry. Not only did he film an author’s work of almost three hours in an intimate tone, but with considerable box office success, despite those elements. All, usually, considered obstacles to box office success.
But Nolan managed to combine, in a cinematographic biography, an exploration of techno-ethics and moral responsibility over technology. The result is a film that he uses from color to black and white, passed through a subjective camera, to tell his story. That, while the spectacle on screen becomes increasingly bigger and colossal.
So, after triumphing in almost all the ceremonies that make up the awards season, it is possible that he is not the ideal candidate, but also the safe one, to win the Oscar. The potential contenders, although solid, have little chance of success. Which includes Martin Scorsese and Venice Film Festival Golden Lion winner Yorgos Lanthimos. Much more distant is The area of interest by Jonathan Glazer, to whom his triumph at Cannes gives him a distant chance of success.
Best Actress, with an — apparent — sure winner
Nominated
- Lily Gladstone by The Moon Killers
- Carey Mulligan by Teacher
- Sandra Hüller by Anatomy of a fall
- Annette Bening by Nyad
- Emma Stone by poor creatures
The possible winner of the statuette in this category is, practically, between two candidates. Lily Gladstone has so far consistently triumphed in awards season, taking home a Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Actress, a SAG Awards and Satellite Awars. Which puts her on a direct path to winning the Academy award, except for one detail. Emma Stone has had an equally brilliant career throughout awards season.
Stone’s acclaimed Bella Baxter earned her the award for Best Comedy Actress at the Golden Globe. Also a BAFTA and Critics’ Choice Awards. So, the possibilities between both are balanced.
The big surprise of the night? That the statuette goes to Sandra Hüller, for Anatomy of a Fall, a role that has caused a sensation among the specialized press. However, the chances are slim, especially because the actress has not defeated the previous two on any of the occasions in which they competed.
Best Actor, without many surprises
Nominees
- Bradley Cooper by Teacher
- Colman Domingo by Rustin
- Paul Giamatti for Those who stay
- Cillian Murphy by Oppenheimer
- Jeffrey Wright by American Fiction
This is likely to be the category where the winner is obvious and there is no further discussion of their victory. Cillian Murphy won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the SAG, in the midst of what seems like a meteoric Oscar career. At some point in January, Paul Giamatti seemed to be his only competition for his performance in Those who stay.
However, Murphy, who managed to give life, heart and dimensions to a controversial historical figure, soon demonstrated his weight on the list. Not only because of the awards, but because of the unanimous acclaim of his role. The Irish actor brought a kind of brilliance to his role that was surprising in a dark and dense film. What captivated the public, the critics and directly places him as one of the safeties in the predictions for the 2024 Oscar.
Best Supporting Actress, the celebration of sensitive roles
Nominated
- Emily Blunt by Oppenheimer
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph by Those who stay
- Danielle Brooks by The color purple
- Jodie Foster by Nyad
- America Ferrera by Barbie
In the category, there is a clear winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph is not only a prominent figure in the Alexander Payne film in which she participates. At the same time, she is an actress who knew how to explore an apparently stereotypical role, until she gave one of the most emotional performances of the season.
The result is achieving a Golden Globe, a Critics Choice Awards and a SAG Awarsquite a feat while competing with several of the industry’s strongest actresses, so she enters directly into the 2024 Oscar predictions. Even so, Randolph’s performance managed to beat the great Jodie Foster and even the woman who gave one of the great monologues of the year, America Ferrera. Most likely, the actress ended her successful career with an Oscar in her hands.
Best Supporting Actor, the second chance for an actor
Nominees
- Sterling K. Brown by American Fiction
- Robert De Niro by The Moon Killers
- Robert Downey Jr. by Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling by Barbie
- Mark Ruffalo by poor creatureyes
Robert Downey Jr. is going through the umpteenth revival of his career, which also led him to a golden career throughout the awards season. Even the actor has not lost on all the occasions in which he has been nominated, so his victory, on March 10, is considered certain. It is one of the safest predictions for the 2024 Oscar, but you never know.
The only close competition could be Mark Ruffalo, whose portrayal of a contemptible and manipulative character surprised critics. However, that surprise is not reflected in the statuettes, so it is not likely that he will be able to win the coveted Oscar award.