Climate change is not just heat. One of the most devastating effects has to do with the floods caused by the rains, which are becoming more torrential and frequent. A new study warns that the climate models that had been warning about this impact would be underestimating the effect of global warming. In other words: The rains will increase in intensity faster than we thought.
“Our study confirms that the intensity and frequency of extreme heavy precipitation increases exponentially with each increase in global warming,” explains Max Kotz, lead author of the study and member of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The research was published this week in Journal of Climate.
PIK researchers analyzed extreme daily rainfall over land in 21 state-of-the-art climate simulations (CMIP-6). They compared the projected changes with those observed historically. The method they applied is based on pattern filtering techniques, which allowed them to separate which changes in rainfall are a consequence of climate change caused by human activity and which are not.
Most land areas are recording increases in both the intensity and frequency of rainfall. But they are especially stronger in tropical regions, according to the study. Also, in high latitudes, such as in Southeast Asia or northern Canada.
The benefit of knowing the effect of climate change on rainfall
Current latest generation models they underestimate the impact in a “considerable and significant” way, scientists highlight. “Our findings suggest that these effects could be much worse than we thought. Extreme rains will be more intense and frequent. Society must be prepared for this,” explained Anders Levermann, head of the PIK department and co-author of the study, in a statement.
Changes in the frequency and intensity of daily extreme rainfall have economic and social impacts. “But also with the availability of groundwater, which can cause significant loss of life and financial loss,” the researchers say.
Another study published in October warns that Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely to intensify rapidly. Due to the warming of the sea surface, minor hurricanes are increasingly becoming stronger and potentially catastrophic phenomena. Last August, for example, Hurricane Lee went from being a category 1 event – with winds of 129 kilometers per hour – to a category 5 – 249 kilometers per hour. This, in just 24 hours.
“The good news is that this makes it easier to predict the future of extreme precipitation,” Levermann said. And, in this way, authorities and populations will be able to prepare faster and in a more timely manner. The bad new?: “It will get worse if we continue to increase global temperatures through the emission of greenhouse gases.”
Rain damage
Other research determined that more than 64% of the damage caused by climate change around the world is related to storms and heavy rain. The researchers took into account 185 natural disasters, which occurred between 2000 and 2019, which were more likely due to the climate crisis. The analysis, published in the scientific journal Nature Communicationsreports an average of $140 billion a year in damages.
A European Union report says that in the region alone, there are around 170,000 people exposed to the risk of flooding every year. This number could increase to 480,000 by the end of the century due to climate change, says the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Climate Action.
Next Thursday, November 30, COP28, the United Nations Conference on Climate Change, begins. It is the most important instance of global discussion on the problem. Leaders of governments and organizations will meet in Dubai, in a meeting that will last until December 12 in Dubai. The great objective of the meeting, like every year, is to review plans to reduce the emission of polluting gases, the main drivers of global warming.